A paper titled, “Unextractable Fossil Fuels in a 1.5 °C World“, published in Nature, finds that limiting global temperature increase to 1.5 degrees Celsius (2 degrees Celsius at most) relative to preindustrial averages will require ambitious reductions in fossil fuel use. Researchers used a global energy systems model to determine the amount of fossil fuel energy that must be left unextracted for a 50 percent chance of capping global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius by the year 2050.
By their calculations, close to 60 percent of the globe’s fossil oil and gas reserves, and nearly 90 percent of its coal will have to remain unextracted if humanity is to meet the Paris Climate Agreement‘s goal of limiting global temperature rising to 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) relative preindustrial estimates. Fossil fuel use must continue to fall by at least 3 percent each ensuing year until the 2050 deadline.
By employing the TIMES Integrated Assessment Model, researchers were able to determine the sources (conversion, transportation, and distribution) of fossil fuels across various economic sectors. This framework was used to approximate energy demands in the simulated future scenario. The model depicts 16 different regions with oil reserves and trading networks that connect them. If “very high shares” of fossil fuel reserves remain untouched, the chance of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius improves dramatically.
The research team, consisting of Dan Welsby, James Price, Steve Pye & Paul Ekins, state that they’ve underestimated the production changes that are actually required for meeting the Paris Agreement. In other words, the fossil fuel reductions suggested for the energy, transportation, and agriculture sectors posited in the study are likely not ambitious enough.
Can Global Warming Be Stopped
Earlier this year, International Energy Agency (IEA) published a report, “Net Zero Emissions by 2050: A Roadmap for the Global Energy Sector“, greenhouse gas emissions would have to be halted to achieve net-zero carbon dioxide (CO2) by the year 2050. Accomplishing the feat will require more stringent energy and environmental policies. International governments and their respective energy sectors will ultimately choose our future temperatures.
Reaching net zero greenhouse gas emissions is a facet of the larger goal to limit the long-term effects of climate change, including global temperature rise, biodiversity loss, and heightened sea levels. The phrase “net zero” itself is the aim of reducing greenhouse gas output at least to the level estimated to be absorbed by Earth’s carbon sinks over a given period. In other words, achieving a complete balance between the amount of greenhouse gas that’s emitted and the amount that is drained from the atmosphere. In recent years, net zero has gained political traction and has even been endorsed by the Biden administration as a serious goal.
The “Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario (NZE)” is one scenario among many possible pathways to achieve net zero carbon emissions by mid-century. The IEA posits that “the path to net‐zero emissions is narrow…”, meaning that all potential scenarios will require specific actions at specific times. As early as 2030, the NZE calls for the decline of total global energy consumption, declines in coal use, and improvements in energy efficiency.
Net Zero By 2050 IEA
The NZE authors say that “staying on it [the path to zero-emissions by 2050] requires the immediate and massive deployment of all available clean and efficient energy technologies.” The NZE emphasizes the importance of renewable energy, electricity, and hydrogen-based fuels, as they will have to eventually replace fossil fuels. Investments in new oil and gas fields must cease immediately. Without changes in energy sectors, net zero by 2050 is an unrealistic objective. No new coal-fired power stations can be built to avoid further global heating and the worst effects of climate change.
